News-Press

January 7, 2009


John McWilliams: Lessons learned from rough year in real estate

John McWilliams - Guest Opinion

I have been in the real estate business for 31 years. I’ve been through previous cycles, frenzies, irrational exuberance and downturns, but I must say I’ve never seen a year that even comes close to the turbulence of 2008.

The events of every day could be best described as somewhere between the Wild, Wild West and the collapse of the Roman Empire.

Approximately every 15 minutes I’m in a meeting or phone conversation with a buyer or seller that leaves me shaking my head in utter shock and disbelief. I recently had a homeowner ask me to “coach” them on how to lose their home to foreclosure so they could then buy it back for less money. This of course would be known as fraud, and I declined to participate.

On the same day a buyer prospect called me from up North saying he was looking for a “real, real, cheap home.” He said he heard Fort Myers was “giving homes away.”

While I advised him of exceptional buying opportunities I asked him his definition of “cheap.” He responded $15,000 to $25,000. The problem was he was serious. He said he saw on the “Internet” homes off of McGregor Boulevard in this price range.

I thought Al Gore invented the Internet in the 1980s so I knew this guy’s story didn’t add up—$15,000 to $25,000 homes off of McGregor would have been in the 1940-1950 era. I’m no longer considering him to be a serious prospect. Here are some things I learned in the 2008 real estate market.

• The baby boomers are not coming. Too many of them are broke or financially mismanaged.

• Some parts of Lee County may not be at the bottom. Lehigh Acres and North Cape Coral probably are at the bottom.

• Commercial real estate has fallen in the footsteps of residential. Ask any commercial Realtor how difficult their business is right now. Commercial tenants and users both have hit the skids.

• Helping home owners determine true market value and forecasting time on the market has never been more difficult. Why? Market value is simply based on recent sold activity. There are countless subdivisions without any sold activity. Need I say more?

• Uncertainty breeds inactivity. Thanks to the Wall Street gangsters, liars, and thieves, these dirty rotten scoundrels have impacted countless Americans to exacerbate the already challenged real estate environment. I used to believe Houdini was the greatest magician ever. Then along came Bernard Madoff, the Wall Street sleaze ball who recently made $50 billion disappear. These financial debacles have wreaked havoc on many who might want to take advantage of this excellent time to buy a home in Southwest Florida.

Most importantly I’ve learned to be more compassionate. I’ve met dozens of households in trouble. All age groups, all walks of life. I try my best to counsel them. It’s not easy and it’s not pleasant. It’s my job right now.

Bottom line: Lee County has liquidation home prices with attractive interest rates. Tell your friends and relatives to come down and buy a home. The weather’s great!